Liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz rose in September to their highest monthly level since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began, offering a tentative sign that some Gulf energy flows are recovering even as security risks continue to reshape global gas trade.
S&P Global Energy counted 19 LNG cargoes exiting the strategic waterway during September, including 13 from Qatar and six from the United Arab Emirates. Kpler, using its own ship-tracking methodology, counted 21 cargoes. Both datasets point in the same direction: traffic has increased from the severely depressed levels seen earlier in the conflict.
September marks the strongest LNG month since the war began
The rebound is significant because the Strait of Hormuz is the only maritime route connecting Qatar’s giant LNG export facilities with international markets. The UAE also ships LNG through the strait, making the passage important to buyers across Asia and Europe.
S&P said 19 cargoes moved through in September, compared with 15 in June. Kpler recorded 21 in September, also up from 15 in June. Differences between tracking companies are common because vessels can temporarily switch off identification signals and providers use different methodologies to estimate movements.
The recovery remains only a fraction of normal traffic
Higher September shipments should not be confused with a return to normal. S&P analyst Eric Yep told Reuters that if the stronger pace seen in the second half of September continues, October traffic could recover to roughly 25% of pre-war monthly levels.
That comparison shows how severe the disruption has been. Even after the September improvement, the majority of normal Gulf LNG traffic has not returned.
Qatar accounts for most of the returning cargoes
Qatar was responsible for 13 of the 19 September cargoes counted by S&P. That matters because Qatar is one of the world’s largest LNG suppliers and its Ras Laffan complex is a cornerstone of global gas trade.
Ship-tracking data cited by Reuters showed several vessels carrying cargoes from Ras Laffan reappearing outside the Strait of Hormuz in late September, evidence that some loaded tankers were again successfully navigating the route.
Some LNG tankers are making ‘dark transits’
A major complication for tracking the recovery is the use of so-called dark transits. Reuters reported that some LNG carriers have crossed the strait with their Automatic Identification System transponders switched off.
AIS normally broadcasts a vessel’s identity, position, speed and direction to nearby ships and tracking networks. Turning it off can reduce public visibility of a ship’s movements, although it also creates navigational and transparency concerns.
Why Hormuz matters to the global gas market
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategically important energy chokepoints. It connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, providing access to global markets for major oil and gas exporters.
For LNG, the route is particularly important because Qatar lacks an alternative seaborne export path. Before the conflict, Qatari and Emirati LNG moving through Hormuz represented a substantial share of global LNG trade.
Asia is especially exposed to Gulf LNG disruption
Asian economies are major buyers of Qatari LNG. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, South Korea and China all rely on imported gas to varying degrees for power generation, industry and household energy needs.
When Gulf cargoes disappear from the market, buyers may compete for alternative supplies from the United States, Australia and other producers. That competition can push spot prices higher and increase shipping distances.
Europe also watches the strait closely
Europe’s exposure has increased as LNG became more important to its energy security following the sharp reduction in Russian pipeline gas after 2022. European buyers now compete directly with Asian utilities for flexible cargoes.
Any prolonged Gulf disruption can therefore affect European storage strategies and winter purchasing even when individual cargoes were originally destined for Asia.
Qatar has extended force majeure notices
The September shipping rebound comes alongside continuing supply restrictions. QatarEnergy has extended force majeure notices affecting some customers, including Italian utility Edison and buyers in Asia, according to Reuters.
Force majeure is a contractual mechanism that can excuse a supplier from normal delivery obligations when extraordinary circumstances prevent performance. Its continued use indicates that higher tanker traffic has not restored normal commercial operations.
Damaged infrastructure creates a second constraint
Shipping security is only one part of the problem. Damage to production and export infrastructure means that even a safer Strait of Hormuz would not automatically restore every lost LNG cargo.
Industry executives have warned that physical repairs, marine logistics and insurance conditions may take much longer to normalize than vessel traffic itself.
War-risk insurance remains a major cost
Shipowners operating near conflict zones can face sharply higher insurance premiums. Those costs can influence whether companies are willing to enter a high-risk waterway and can ultimately be reflected in freight rates and delivered energy prices.
LNG carriers are highly specialized vessels with valuable cargoes and complex containment systems. Owners, charterers, insurers and cargo buyers therefore weigh security risks carefully before committing vessels to disputed routes.
Unusual ship-to-ship transfers have emerged
The disruption has also produced unusual logistics. Reuters reported in September that several Qatari and UAE LNG cargoes had been transferred between vessels outside the Strait of Hormuz before continuing to buyers in India and Japan.
Ship-to-ship transfers are common in some oil trades but relatively unusual for LNG because liquefied gas must be kept at extremely low temperatures and requires specialized transfer equipment and procedures.
Middle East crude exports are recovering too
The LNG improvement is part of a broader but uneven recovery in Gulf energy movements. Kpler data reported by Reuters showed crude exports from key Middle Eastern producers rising to 16.328 million barrels per day in September, their highest level since the conflict began.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE contributed to the increase. Crude and LNG markets are different, but both depend heavily on maritime security and access to Gulf shipping routes.
Fujairah is also rebuilding fuel flows
Fuel oil supplies at Fujairah in the UAE increased during the third quarter, allowing the major bunkering hub to restore some refuelling activity and boost exports to Asia.
Kpler data showed Fujairah imported about 2.6 million metric tons of fuel oil in the third quarter, compared with 845,000 tons in the second quarter. Bunker sales improved but remained below pre-war levels.
Global LNG buyers are diversifying supply
The Hormuz disruption is reinforcing a trend toward diversified LNG portfolios. Buyers increasingly value contracts that can draw supply from several production regions rather than relying heavily on one export route.
U.S. and Canadian LNG have helped replace part of the Gulf shortfall. New export projects scheduled to enter service later this decade could further change the balance of global supply.
Why September’s rebound does not eliminate winter risk
The key question is whether September’s improvement can be sustained. A renewed military escalation could reduce tanker movements again, while damaged facilities and force majeure declarations limit how quickly supply can return.
Winter demand adds another layer of uncertainty. Colder weather in Europe or northeast Asia can rapidly increase gas consumption, leaving buyers more sensitive to disruptions in major exporting regions.
What energy markets will watch in October
Three indicators will be particularly important: the number of LNG tankers successfully crossing Hormuz, the status of Qatari production and force majeure notices, and the cost of insuring vessels operating in the region.
Analysts will also watch whether more vessels use dark transits, which can make real-time estimates less precise and complicate assessments of how much supply is actually reaching international markets.
A recovery, but not yet a normalization
September’s LNG data provide the clearest sign yet that some gas exports through Hormuz are finding a way back to market. But 19 to 21 cargoes in a month remains far from the traffic seen before the conflict.
For energy consumers, the distinction matters. The strait is moving more gas again, but the combination of military risk, damaged infrastructure, insurance costs and contractual disruption means the global LNG market remains vulnerable heading toward winter.
Sources and image credit
This report is based on Reuters reporting published October 2, 2026 using S&P Global Energy, Kpler and LSEG ship-tracking data, with additional Reuters reporting on QatarEnergy supply disruptions and Fujairah fuel flows. Featured image: Mozah, Nakilat’s flagship LNG carrier at Ras Laffan, by Nakilat via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
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