NEW DELHI — India’s southwest monsoon has ended with rainfall 12.6% below the long-term average, according to the India Meteorological Department, making 2026 one of the weaker monsoon seasons in recent years. The weather outlook is now shifting toward October, with the IMD expecting below-normal rainfall across much of the country.
Why the monsoon matters
The southwest monsoon is critical to India’s agriculture, water supplies and rural economy. Farmers depend on seasonal rainfall for crops, while reservoirs and groundwater systems are replenished by monsoon precipitation.
A weak season does not affect every state equally. Rainfall can be excessive in one region and deficient in another, creating very different agricultural conditions.
October outlook
The IMD expects below-average rainfall during October in many parts of India. Forecasts also indicate that rainfall patterns will vary by region, with some areas still facing periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms.
People should therefore follow local forecasts rather than assuming dry conditions everywhere.
Impact on farmers
Rainfall during the later part of the season can still affect standing crops, harvesting schedules and soil moisture. Farmers may need to adjust irrigation and harvest plans depending on local weather.
Crop outcomes also depend on rainfall timing, temperature and access to irrigation.
Rice production is under pressure
Reuters reported that India’s rice production is expected to decline this year for the first time in a decade and by the most in nearly 20 years, partly because of below-normal rainfall during crop maturation.
India is the world’s largest rice producer and exporter, so changes in production can affect domestic prices and global food markets.
Food prices could be affected
Lower agricultural output can put upward pressure on food prices if supplies tighten. The impact depends on government stocks, imports, exports and the performance of other producing regions.
India has used policy measures in several commodities to manage domestic availability.
Water resources
Monsoon rainfall influences reservoirs used for drinking water, irrigation and electricity generation. A below-normal season can make water management more difficult in some regions.
States with strong irrigation systems may be better able to manage rainfall deficits than areas heavily dependent on rain-fed farming.
Electricity demand
Weather conditions also affect electricity demand. Higher temperatures can increase cooling requirements, while rainfall influences hydropower generation.
India is therefore monitoring both thermal generation and renewable output as it enters the post-monsoon period.
Urban weather risks remain
Even during a generally dry month, intense rainfall can cause flooding in cities because of drainage limitations and rapidly developing thunderstorms.
Local authorities need to maintain drainage systems and monitor short-duration extreme rainfall events.
El Niño influence
Weather scientists have linked the weak monsoon outlook to the development of El Niño conditions. The exact effect varies by season and region, but El Niño has historically been associated with changes in Indian rainfall.
Forecasts can change as atmospheric conditions evolve.
What consumers should watch
Food prices, vegetable supply, reservoir levels and local rainfall will provide useful indicators of the practical impact of the monsoon.
Government procurement and food stocks can also reduce the effect of production fluctuations on consumers.
The bigger picture
India’s 2026 monsoon has ended below average, but the economic consequences will depend on regional rainfall, crop conditions, irrigation and government policy. October weather will be important for farmers completing harvest operations and for water managers preparing for the next season.
Read more India weather and agriculture news in our India section and business coverage in our Business section.
Source: IMD and Reuters reporting.
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